BANGKOK, June 18. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump's decision to participate in Israeli strikes on Tehran may result in a political catastrophe for the US leader if the goal is not reached, said Roostum Vansu, a Thai expert in international relations and a lecturer at the Institute of Peace Studies at Prince of Songkhla University.
"Trump's decision will hinge on a careful assessment of the maximum effectiveness of available weapons and the strategic capability to achieve the desired objectives. If the ability to destroy Fordow remains a significant question mark, Trump might choose not to directly intervene in the war, or to limit intervention to continued threats and sanctions, thereby avoiding a 'war that cannot be won' - which could prove to be a political tragedy for him," the expert told TASS.
According to Vansu, the challenge is not the bombing itself. The penetration depth of the US GBU-57 A/B precision-guided 'bunker buster' bomb is approximately 60 meters, but Iran's nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow enrichment facility, are located at least 90 meters underground, potentially even deeper, up to 800 meters.
"Furthermore, reports indicate the US has previously used the GBU-57 A/B to destroy Houthi weapons depots in Yemen," the expert continued. "However, the bombs reportedly failed to inflict the expected damage on the Houthi weapons depots due to the depth and complexity of their carefully constructed tunnels. Moreover, the latter attack not only failed to halt Yemeni missile strikes against Israel, but also saw the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman sustain damage from Yemeni missiles and lose two F-18 Super Hornet fighter jets."
The ABC News television channel reported on Wednesday that Washington may announce the decision to join Israel's operation against Iran within the next 24-48 hours. Israeli officials believe that the US is on the brink of making the decision, Israel's Channel 12 said.
Overnight into June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran's nuclear program. Iran responded in less than 24 hours. In the following days, Tel Aviv and Tehran exchanged strikes again. Both parties reported casualties and damage, and admitted that a number of facilities had been hit, but said the damage was limited.